Trend continuation
Participate in established direction after a pause or renewed confirmation.
Best studied in directional, liquid conditions
Strategy lab
Turn an observation into a complete decision.
SEG playbooks connect context, setup, trigger, invalidation, exposure, and review. No component stands alone.
SEG / PLAYBOOK6 PARTS
These are educational frameworks, not recommendations or representations of expected returns.
Strategy anatomy
Six parts of a testable plan.
01
Context
The market condition in which the idea is expected to have an edge.
02
Setup
The observable pattern or condition that earns attention.
03
Trigger
The specific evidence required before an entry is considered.
04
Invalidation
The condition showing that the original idea no longer applies.
05
Exposure
Size derived from risk limits, liquidity, and relationship to other positions.
06
Review
The evidence used to judge execution and refine the next version.
Strategy families
Match the playbook to the regime.
Breakout and acceptance
Assess whether price can build value beyond a well-observed boundary.
Requires participation and clear failure criteria
Mean reversion
Evaluate stretched movement when the broader market remains balanced.
Depends on stable reference points and disciplined exits
Event response
Wait for the market to process new information before framing a conditional response.
Prioritizes liquidity, smaller size, and optionality
These are educational frameworks, not recommendations or representations of expected returns.
Scenario lab
Plan more than one future.
The level does not predict the outcome. It organizes your response.
Practice the full scenarioObserved context3 paths
Price is approaching a multi-session boundary as volatility contracts.
A
Acceptance: participation expands and price holds beyond the boundary.
B
Rejection: price returns inside the prior range and momentum fades.
C
No decision: price crosses the level without participation or follow-through.
Risk budget
Size begins with the loss limit.
A disciplined process works backward from acceptable risk and the distance to invalidation. It never enlarges risk to make a desired position fit.
Step 1Set the maximum decision-level loss.
Step 2Define a structural invalidation point.
Step 3Estimate fees, spread, and slippage.
Step 4Calculate size, then check total portfolio exposure.
Examples are illustrative. Position sizing cannot eliminate loss, gaps, or liquidity risk.
Pre-decision checklist
Before capital, earn clarity.
- I can describe the current regime in one sentence.
- I know which evidence triggers the decision.
- I have written what invalidates the thesis.
- The planned loss fits my risk budget.
- I have checked catalysts, liquidity, and correlated exposure.
- I know what I will record after the decision closes.
Process comparison
From reactive to deliberate.
| # | Reactive habit | Deliberate practice |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Enter because price is moving | Wait for predefined evidence |
| 02 | Choose size from desired profit | Choose size from tolerable loss |
| 03 | Move the exit when discomfort rises | Respond to structural invalidation |
| 04 | Judge skill by one outcome | Review decisions across a useful sample |
Review system
The strategy improves after the trade is over.
Capture the information that can change future behavior, not a screenshot archive with no conclusion.
Study the review framework- Was the context classified correctly?
- Did execution follow the written trigger and risk?
- Which result came from process, and which came from variance?
- What single rule or observation deserves another sample?
A strategy should tell you when not to act.
Build a plan complete enough to protect attention as carefully as capital.